According to Allan Lichtman, a distinguished professor of history at American University, Trump will win the elections in November.
Professor Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, by using his special system called “13 Keys to the White House”, says that according to his many time’s proven system, Trump is the great favorite to win.
Lichtman explained that these keys are 13 true/false questions, where an answer of “true” always favors the re-election of the party holding the White House, in this case, the Democrats, but if six or more of the 13 keys are false, they lose !
This 13 keys that he’s using are:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman said that this was the most difficult election to predict yet, but based on this 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory.
“Donald Trump has made this the most difficult election to assess since 1984. We have never before seen a candidate like Donald Trump, and Donald Trump may well break patterns of history that have held since 1860”.
“Remember, six keys and you’re out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys. Key 1 is the party mandate — how well they did in the midterms. They got crushed. Key number 3 is, the sitting president is not running. Key number 7, no major policy change in Obama’s second term like the Affordable Care Act. Key number 11, no major smashing foreign policy success. And Key number 12, Hillary Clinton is not a Franklin Roosevelt. So one more key and the Democrats are down, and we have the Gary Johnson Key” Lichtman said.
We are very happy to hear what you said, Professor Lichtman. Do you believe that Lichtman’s prediction will happen? Comment below.
SOURCE: Washington Post